The Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC) has raised alarm over Ghana’s rapidly declining crude oil production, cautioning that the sharp fall in petroleum revenues poses a significant threat to national fiscal stability and energy security.
In a statement issued on Monday, ASEC revealed that petroleum revenue dropped by 56% in the first half of 2025, creating what it described as a “severe fiscal shock” with the potential to undermine essential public expenditure and macroeconomic stability. The organisation stressed that reversing the ongoing production decline must be treated as a national emergency.
ASEC outlined a series of urgent measures it believes the government must adopt to stabilise revenues and restore investor confidence in the petroleum sector.
WCTP2 Identified as Ghana’s Most Viable Short-Term Production Opportunity
ASEC emphasised that the West Cape Three Points Block 2 (WCTP2), containing an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of recoverable resources, remains the most commercially viable asset in Ghana’s upstream portfolio. The Centre urged government to expedite appraisal, development, and production activities, describing WCTP2 as the only realistic short-term solution capable of boosting output between 2028 and 2032.
“No other field—discovered or undiscovered—offers the same resource size, readiness level, or near-term production potential,” the statement read.
Voltaian Basin Not a Near-Term Solution
While acknowledging the long-term promise of the Voltaian Basin, ASEC clarified that commercial production cannot be expected before 2033–2036. It warned against presenting the Basin as a quick fix to Ghana’s current fiscal challenges.
ASEC Calls for Accountability at GNPC
The organisation expressed deep concern over the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation’s (GNPC) failure to remit US$488.8 million in Explorco lifting proceeds to the Petroleum Holding Fund. It also cited “unacceptable diversions” of petroleum funds—such as a GH¢4.9 million expenditure on a golf clubhouse—as indicators of weak financial discipline.
ASEC called for formal investigations and insisted that the government must enforce stringent oversight measures before transferring additional assets to GNPC’s subsidiary, Explorco.
Investment Commitments Not a Sign of New Oil Boom
The Centre welcomed the recently announced US$3.5 billion investment commitments in the upstream sector but cautioned that these funds primarily aim to slow production declines in mature fields rather than drive major new growth. It reiterated the need to prioritise high-impact assets like WCTP2.
Government Urged to Acquire—Not Reclaim—Springfield’s Stake
To prevent potential international arbitration and project delays, ASEC recommended that government acquire Springfield E&P’s interest in WCTP2 rather than attempt to reclaim it. The organisation argued that enabling Explorco to lead operations while pursuing a clean acquisition path would safeguard timelines and protect national interests.
Demand for Full Transparency in WCTP2 Assessment
ASEC also stressed that the ongoing process for procuring independent technical and transaction advisors for WCTP2 must be fully transparent. It urged government agencies to ensure unrestricted access to all technical data to guarantee an objective, evidence-based evaluation of the asset.
“There must be no data gatekeeping,” the Centre warned, emphasising the need for unbiased assessments free from commercial or political interference.
A Call for Decisive Action
ASEC concluded by noting that Ghana is at a “critical point,” with the production decline now an immediate economic threat rather than a future concern. The Centre called for swift, strategic action focused on WCTP2, improved governance, and long-term investment in the Voltaian Basin.
