Ghana’s Ageing Oil Fields Expose State Revenues to Deeper Pressure – IES

Ghana’s crude oil production decline has moved beyond a routine industry slowdown into a structural threat to fiscal stability, energy security and long-term upstream investment, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Energy Security.
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, argues that Ghana’s six consecutive years of falling crude output reflect deeper failures in exploration, investment, reservoir management and policy execution rather than a temporary production dip. Its warning is blunt: Ghana’s oil economy is now being carried by three ageing offshore fields without enough new reserves to replace what is being depleted.
Ghana’s crude production peaked at 71.44 million barrels in 2019 after years of growth driven by the Jubilee Field, the TEN Field and the Sankofa Gye Nyame Field. Since then, output has fallen every year, reaching 37.30 million barrels in 2025. The Energy Commission projects a further decline to 34.83 million barrels in 2026. That means national crude production has fallen by 47.79% from its 2019 peak and could decline by 51.24% if the 2026 forecast materialises.

Ghana’s Ageing Oil Fields Expose State Revenues to Deeper Pressure – IES
Ghana’s crude oil production decline has moved beyond a routine industry slowdown into a structural threat to fiscal stability, energy security and long-term upstream investment, according to a new analysis by the Institute for Energy Security.

Economic
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, argues that Ghana’s six consecutive years of falling crude output reflect deeper failures in exploration, investment, reservoir management and policy execution rather than a temporary production dip. Its warning is blunt: Ghana’s oil economy is now being carried by three ageing offshore fields without enough new reserves to replace what is being depleted.

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Ghana’s crude production peaked at 71.44 million barrels in 2019 after years of growth driven by the Jubilee Field, the TEN Field and the Sankofa Gye Nyame Field. Since then, output has fallen every year, reaching 37.30 million barrels in 2025. The Energy Commission projects a further decline to 34.83 million barrels in 2026. That means national crude production has fallen by 47.79% from its 2019 peak and could decline by 51.24% if the 2026 forecast materialises.

For a country that once saw oil as a transformational fiscal asset, the trend is worrying. Ghana is not merely producing less oil. It is losing one of its most important sources of foreign exchange, government revenue and domestic gas supply at a time when public finances remain tight and energy sector obligations are still a major fiscal burden.
The revenue effect has been immediate. Total petroleum receipts fell from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025, a decline of 43.27%. The report attributes this to both lower output and a weaker realised crude price, which fell from US$86.12 per barrel in 2024 to US$74.93 per barrel in 2025, a decline of 12.99%.
This matters because petroleum revenue does not sit in isolation. It supports the Annual Budget Funding Amount, GNPC operations, infrastructure spending and parts of Ghana’s wider energy transition financing. When oil receipts decline sharply, government has less room to fund priority projects, service obligations and support energy sector stability.
The IES analysis makes a crucial distinction between normal field decline and national production failure. Oil fields naturally mature and produce less over time. But countries avoid severe production decline by continuously drilling, improving reservoir recovery and bringing new fields into production. Ghana’s problem, according to the report, is that it has failed to replace declining output from its existing assets.