Namibia’s offshore oil sector increased sharply this year.
TotalEnergies became operator of PEL 83, which contains the Mopane discovery, on September 4 following a transaction with Galp signed in December 2025 and approved by Namibia’s mines ministry in July.
The post-transaction ownership of PEL 83 is 40% TotalEnergies, 40% Galp, 10% Namcor and 10% Custos, with TotalEnergies as operator.
The transaction also gave Galp a 10% interest in PEL 56, where Venus is located, as well as a 9.39% interest in PEL 91.
TotalEnergies’ operated interest in Venus was reduced from 45.25% to 35.25% following the transaction.
The changes leave TotalEnergies at the centre of development decisions for the two largest discoveries currently shaping Namibia’s offshore oil outlook.
Mopane Offers a Larger, Later Opportunity
Mopane could ultimately prove larger than Venus.
Total Energies estimates Mopane resources at between 800 million and 1.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with planned production of more than 200,000 barrels per day.
But the project is less advanced.
An exploration and appraisal campaign is scheduled to run through 2026 and 2027, including at least three wells over the two-year period. TotalEnergies is targeting a final investment decision around 2028.
If both developments proceed, the company has outlined a potential pathway to about 350,000 barrels per day of operated production capacity in Namibia.
For now, however, Venus remains the critical near-term test.
Orange Basin Competition Is Intensifying
Namibia’s offshore opportunity extends beyond TotalEnergies.
Shell and Rhino Resources are also pursuing exploration and appraisal activity in the Orange Basin, providing additional drilling catalysts during 2026.
The basin has attracted significant international attention following a series of major discoveries, but commercial development remains dependent on costs, fiscal terms, infrastructure and the ability to monetise associated gas.
Those factors are increasingly important as operators move from exploration into development planning.
Infrastructure Could Determine the Timeline
Namibia does not yet have an offshore oil-service industry capable of supporting production at the scale envisioned for Venus and Mopane.
Ports, supply bases, FPSO support, subsea services and other infrastructure will need to be developed domestically or supplied from elsewhere in the region.
That creates another potential source of cost and schedule pressure.
Development concepts could therefore be adjusted to reduce the initial scale of Venus and improve the chances of maintaining the 2026 investment timetable.
For Namibian contractors and service providers, the opportunity extends beyond drilling. Port infrastructure, logistics and local-content requirements could become significant parts of the investment cycle if development proceeds.
Government Negotiations Remain Central
President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s government is now negotiating with international oil companies over the terms under which Namibia’s offshore resources will be developed.
The discussions involve fiscal terms, licence arrangements, local-content requirements and state participation through Namcor.
The government faces a balancing act: it wants to capture a meaningful share of future oil revenues while maintaining terms attractive enough to persuade international companies to commit billions of dollars to deepwater developments.
The Venus decision will provide an important test of that balance.
Mining Still Underpins the Economy
The potential transformation into an oil and energy exporter should not obscure Namibia’s current economic structure.
Diamonds and uranium remain important sources of export earnings and government revenue. Oil income, by contrast, remains a future prospect rather than a significant contributor to the 2026 budget.
That distinction matters for investors.
The economic impact of the Orange Basin discoveries will depend on investment decisions being converted into construction, production and eventually government revenue.
Until then, Namibia remains primarily a mining exporter with a potentially significant offshore oil industry waiting to be developed.
Green Hydrogen Provides a Second Energy Strategy
Oil is not Namibia’s only attempt to build a new export economy.
The government is also promoting large-scale green hydrogen projects based on the country’s substantial renewable-energy potential.
The commercial model is different from offshore oil. Hydrogen projects require long-term offtake agreements, large amounts of renewable power, transmission and port infrastructure, as well as financing structures capable of supporting capital-intensive projects.
Several projects have attracted international interest, but memoranda of understanding and development agreements do not necessarily translate into financed projects.
For investors, the distinction between announced capacity and bankable capacity remains important.
What Investors Are Watching
The immediate focus is on the negotiations between TotalEnergies and the Namibian government.
A Venus investment decision before the end of 2026 would provide a major signal that Namibia’s offshore discoveries can move from exploration into commercial production. It would also unlock potential work for engineering firms, drilling contractors, subsea companies, logistics providers and local suppliers.
A further delay would shift attention toward Mopane and its 2027 appraisal programme, followed by the project’s targeted 2028 investment decision.
The outcome will also influence perceptions of Namibia’s fiscal regime and its ability to attract large-scale international energy investment.
For now, the key indicators are straightforward: the Venus FID, the project’s cost target, the outcome of government negotiations and the pace of offshore infrastructure development.
The geology has already attracted the world’s attention. The next test is whether Namibia can turn those discoveries into commercially viable production.
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