Cape Town, South Africa — Officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have underscored Africa’s growing role in global energy markets, warning that trillions of dollars in investment will be required to balance development with sustainability.
Speaking at African Energy Week 2025: Invest in African Energies in Cape Town on Monday, OPEC representatives said Africa’s rising energy demand and refining capacity will be critical to the global supply mix in the coming decades.
Presenting the findings of OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook, Dr. Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department, projected that global primary energy demand will climb 23% by 2050, with non-OECD countries accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Africa alone is expected to contribute an additional 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil demand, while supplying roughly 3 million bpd of new refining capacity.
“There are no signs of global oil demand peaking anytime soon in our outlook,” Dr. Benyoucef said. “Africa will need more energy for economic development—not only electricity, but also clean cooking solutions to improve health and education outcomes. LPG is one of the solutions.”
OPEC’s forecast suggests oil will remain the dominant fuel through 2050, while natural gas overtakes coal as the second-largest source. Developing nations are set to account for 75% of incremental electricity demand, highlighting Africa’s need for strategic investment in both power and downstream infrastructure.
The organization estimates $18.2 trillion in cumulative energy investments will be needed worldwide by 2050, including $14.9 trillion for upstream oil and gas projects. Dr. Benyoucef emphasized that alongside fossil fuel investments, technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage must be scaled up to reduce emissions.
Adding to the macroeconomic perspective, Dr. Sulaiman Saad, Senior Oil Demand Analyst at OPEC, noted that momentum from major economies such as China, the U.S., and India is fueling resilience in the global economy. Still, he cautioned that rising sovereign debt, supply chain fragmentation, and uneven industrial recovery remain challenges.
On the refining side, OPEC forecasts capacity growth shifting decisively toward developing regions. “The migration of refining capacities will continue from developed to developing countries—we have been observing this trend for several years now,” said Mohammed Attaba, Senior Downstream Oil Industry Analyst.
With Africa set to play a pivotal role in meeting future demand, OPEC officials reiterated that sustained and diversified investment will be vital to unlocking the continent’s energy potential while advancing climate goals.
