Africa will require at least two additional refineries the size of Dangote Refinery to meet rising fuel demand and reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products, according to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
The projection was contained in the 2026 State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report (SAIR), unveiled at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi, Kenya.
Presenting the report, Rita Babihuga-Nsanze, AFC Chief Economist and Director of Research and Strategy, said Africa remains highly vulnerable because of its continued dependence on exporting raw materials while importing finished products.
She noted that nearly 70 percent of Africa’s refined fuel consumption is imported, leaving the continent exposed to global supply disruptions and major shipping chokepoints.
According to the report, demand for refined fuels is expected to increase by 56 percent by 2040, creating an import gap of about 86 million tonnes—equivalent to the output of at least two new Dangote-sized refineries.
She added that East Africa presents a strong opportunity for new refining investments due to limited existing infrastructure.
$4 Trillion in Domestic Capital Untapped
The report, titled The Africa We Build: From Capital to Systems, argues that Africa’s greatest challenge is no longer a shortage of capital or resources, but the absence of integrated systems to turn them into productive investments.
It estimates that the continent holds more than $4 trillion in domestic capital across banks, pension funds, insurance institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and development finance institutions.
However, AFC said much of this capital remains underutilised because of weak financial intermediation into long-term infrastructure and industrial projects.
Energy, Transport and Industrialisation
The report also criticised Africa’s long-standing “pit-to-port” economic model, where raw commodities are extracted and exported with little local value addition.
It called for modern transport systems that connect mines, farms, industries, and markets to support domestic trade and industrialisation.
On power supply, AFC noted that Africa currently adds between 6.5 and 8 gigawatts of electricity annually—far below the estimated 20 gigawatts needed each year to meet development goals.
The corporation urged greater regional grid integration, expanded transmission systems, and stronger private sector participation to improve energy reliability.
Fertiliser and Digital Opportunities
The report highlighted opportunities in fertiliser production, noting that Africa holds about 80 percent of global phosphate reserves but produces only 20 percent of phosphate-based fertilisers.
It also pointed to progress in digital connectivity, with mobile access reaching about 85 percent of the population, but warned that limited productive use of digital tools continues to slow economic gains.
A Call for Regional Solutions
Responding to the report, Lerato Mataboge, Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy at the African Union Commission, said the findings align with continental efforts to build integrated infrastructure systems through initiatives such as the Single African Air Transport Market and the Single Electricity Market Programme.
She, however, acknowledged that implementation remains slow due to weak cross-border coordination and nationally focused planning.
AFC President and Chief Executive Officer, Samaila Zubairu, said Africa must move away from fragmented, import-dependent systems toward regional industrial solutions.
“For too long, we have exported value in its lowest form and imported it back at a premium. That model is unsustainable,” he said.
He warned that volatility in global energy markets continues to expose Africa’s overdependence on imports, leading to supply disruptions, rising costs, and pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
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