The 2026 budget was presented with high expectations of improved efficiency in the energy sector, reduction of debtg in the sector, and improved capital expenditure to increase access to electricity to over 99%. In addition, there were high expectations of new petroleum agreements and Power Purchase Agreements to increase future crude oil outputs and available power for the government flagship 24- hour economy programme. There was also an expectation of energy transition and policy targets towards the penetration of Liquefied Petroleum Gas at the household level.
The following analysis presents a critical assessment of the 2026 budget for energy and green transition. The presentation discussed the sector growth with emphasis on electricity and oil & gas, allocations to the ministry, debt, and subsidies of the power sector, infrastructure, petroleum upstream, petroleum downstream, and development of renewable energies.
ENERGY SECTOR GROWTH
The key areas in the budget with respect to energy sector growth are electricity and oil and gas sub-sectors of industry. The projected growth for electricity in 2026 is 4.6% which is a 2.1 percentage point increase from the projection for 2025. The electricity subsector of the industry observed a contraction in 2022 (-3.5%) and 2023 (-10.8%). However, based on provisional data of 2.0% for 2024, the sector began expanding, although less than the peak of 9.9% in 2020 within the last seven years.