The Ghana National Petroleum Corporation’s (GNPC) 2025 Annual Report presents strong headline financial figures, but a closer examination points to emerging challenges around declining oil production, liquidity, gas-sector exposure and the Corporation’s ambitious capital programme.
An analysis of the report by energy analyst Joseph Narh suggests that GNPC’s performance should be assessed beyond its profitability figures, particularly against the backdrop of declining crude oil production and increasing dependence on gas-related revenues.
Ghana’s crude oil production peaked at 71.44 million barrels in 2019 but fell to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, representing a decline of approximately 48 per cent. The decline marks the fifth consecutive year of falling production.
The Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa fields have all recorded significant declines. TEN production, for instance, fell from 23.56 million barrels in 2018 to 5.83 million barrels in 2025, representing a reduction of about 75 per cent. Sankofa production has also declined by almost half from its 2020 peak.
The report acknowledges that upstream investment has weakened, with no new upstream partners registered during 2025. GNPC is therefore looking increasingly towards projects such as Eban-Akoma, Pecan and a number of marginal fields to replenish production.
However, Eban-Akoma is not expected to achieve first oil until the second quarter of 2029, creating a significant gap between the Corporation’s declining current production base and anticipated new production.
Gas increasingly drives revenue
While oil production continues to decline, GNPC’s revenue profile is becoming increasingly dominated by gas.
Standalone revenue reached approximately US$1.45 billion in 2025, representing an increase of nearly three per cent, with gas accounting for about 65.6 per cent of the total.
The growing contribution of gas provides diversification but also exposes GNPC to the financial health and payment capacity of its customers, particularly within Ghana’s power and industrial sectors.
A key concern highlighted in the analysis is the financial position of Ghana Gas. The company reported revenue of approximately GH¢5.85 billion against trade receivables of GH¢11.23 billion and equity of GH¢4.28 billion.
The level of receivables is therefore significantly higher than annual revenue and more than twice the company’s equity, raising concerns about counterparty and liquidity risks within the gas value chain.
The analysis also points to GNPC Group’s current ratio of approximately 0.67, meaning current assets are below current liabilities. While the Corporation remains profitable, the figures suggest that its liquidity position requires careful management as it embarks on an extensive capital investment programme.
Ambitious capital agenda
GNPC’s planned investments span several areas, including Eban-Akoma, Pecan, marginal and stranded fields, exploration of the Voltaian Basin, additional gas processing infrastructure, a third compressor, Tema LNG, minerals development and a new corporate headquarters.
The Corporation also has an ambition to become a full upstream operator by 2030.
The analysis cautions that becoming an operator should not be viewed as an achievement in itself, arguing that operatorship must ultimately be justified by GNPC’s technical capacity, project management expertise, commercial strength and ability to generate competitive returns.
It, however, identifies GNPC’s strategy of clustering marginal fields and sharing infrastructure and gas evacuation systems as one of the more promising elements of the Corporation’s plans.
The proposed financing structures—including project finance, development finance institution debt, vendor financing, special purpose vehicles and lease-to-own arrangements—could also help reduce the pressure on GNPC’s balance sheet.
Call for greater capital discipline
The analysis argues that GNPC’s immediate challenge is not necessarily revenue generation but the sustainability and quality of its future cash flows.
It calls for greater prioritisation of projects, with existing cash-generating assets protected, near-term production replacement given priority and longer-term projects subjected to rigorous investment and return criteria.
According to the assessment, GNPC is now at a strategic crossroads between production participation and portfolio management, revenue growth and cash-flow quality, and expanding activities and achieving sustainable returns on capital.
The Corporation’s 2025 results, therefore, provide grounds for optimism but also highlight the need for disciplined sequencing of investments, stronger liquidity management and improved collection of outstanding receivables.
The broader question, the analysis concludes, is not simply whether GNPC had a good financial year in 2025, but whether the Corporation is building an asset portfolio capable of generating sustainable cash flows for Ghana beyond 2030.
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